Individuals & FamiliesForm 1040-ESNorth Carolina NC-40

When are estimated taxes due, and how much do I have to pay to avoid a penalty?

Short answer

If you expect to owe $1,000 or more in federal tax after withholding and credits, you generally need to make estimated payments. There are four due dates: April 15, June 15, September 15 and January 15 of the following year. You won't be penalized if you pay at least 90% of this year's tax or 100% of last year's (110% if last year's AGI was over $150,000). North Carolina residents pay state estimates separately on Form NC-40.

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$1,000
Expect to owe at least this much for the year? You generally need to pay estimated tax.
4 payments
April 15 · June 15 · September 15 · January 15 (next year)
90% / 100%
Safe harbor: 90% of this year's tax or 100% of last year's
110%
The prior-year safe harbor if last year's AGI exceeded $150,000
01

At a glance

  • Expect to owe $1,000 or more after withholding and refundable credits? You generally need to pay estimated tax.
  • Four installments: April 15, June 15, September 15 and January 15 of the next year. The payment periods are not equal quarters.
  • Pay 90% of this year's tax or 100% of last year's and there is no underpayment penalty.
  • If last year's AGI was over $150,000, the prior-year safe harbor rises to 110%.
  • North Carolina residents make separate state payments on Form NC-40.
02

What are estimated taxes, and who has to pay them?

Estimated tax is how you pay income tax on money that has no withholding, or not enough of it. If you expect to owe $1,000 or more after withholding and refundable credits, you generally need to pay during the year rather than at filing time.

The U.S. tax system is pay-as-you-go. Your employer withholds tax from every paycheck, but nobody withholds on these:

  • Self-employment and 1099 income (consulting, design, e-commerce, rideshare, freelancing)
  • Net rental income
  • Capital gains, dividends and interest
  • Pension or IRA distributions without withholding
  • A side business on top of a W-2 job, or a spouse who is self-employed

If those add up to a balance due of $1,000 or more, the IRS treats it as an underpayment and charges a penalty based on how much was short in each period and for how long.

03

When is each payment due, and what income does it cover?

The four deadlines are April 15, June 15, September 15 and January 15 of the following year. When a date falls on a weekend or holiday, it moves to the next business day. The periods behind each payment are uneven.

Figure 1. Estimated tax timeline for tax year 2026

Read from the top: four payments from January 2026 to January 2027; income earned in each row's period is due by that row's date. North Carolina NC-40 payments follow the same four dates.

PaymentIncome earnedMonthsDue
1stJanuary 1 – March 313 monthsApril 15
2ndApril 1 – May 312 monthsJune 15
3rdJune 1 – August 313 monthsSeptember 15
4thSeptember 1 – December 314 monthsJanuary 15, 2027

The June payment comes just two months after April, which is why it's the one people miss most often.

04

How much do I need to pay? What is the safe harbor?

If your four payments add up to at least 90% of this year's tax or 100% of last year's tax (110% if last year's AGI exceeded $150,000), you won't owe an underpayment penalty, even if you still owe a balance when you file. You can use whichever rule works better for you.

Two quick examples, assuming no other withholding:

  • Last year's tax was $20,000 and AGI was $120,000. Paying 100% of last year's tax means $20,000, or $5,000 per installment.
  • Last year's tax was $40,000 and AGI was $200,000. Because AGI was over $150,000, the target is 110%: $44,000, or $11,000 per installment.

W-2 withholding counts toward the target, so you only need to make up the difference. If your income is hard to predict, the prior-year rule is the safer choice. If you know this year will be noticeably lower, the 90% rule lets you pay less.

05

How do North Carolina estimated payments work?

North Carolina is separate from the IRS. You pay state estimates on Form NC-40 or online through the NC Department of Revenue, on the same four dates as the federal payments. A federal payment never covers your state balance, and NC charges its own penalty and interest.

06

How do I make the payments?

  • Federal: IRS Direct Pay (straight from your bank account, no enrollment), EFTPS, your IRS online account, or a check with a 1040-ES voucher.
  • North Carolina: NCDOR online payment, or a check with an NC-40 voucher.

Keep every confirmation number. When we prepare your return, we match each payment by amount and date.

07

Key rules at a glance

ItemAmount / dateNotesApplies to
When estimated tax is generally required$1,000Expected balance due after withholding and refundable creditsTax year 2026
1st installmentApril 15, 2026Income from Jan 1 – Mar 31Tax year 2026
2nd installmentJune 15, 2026Income from Apr 1 – May 31Tax year 2026
3rd installmentSeptember 15, 2026Income from Jun 1 – Aug 31Tax year 2026
4th installmentJanuary 15, 2027Income from Sep 1 – Dec 31Tax year 2026
Safe harbor (current year)90%Of your 2026 taxTax year 2026
Safe harbor (prior year)100%Of your 2025 taxTax year 2026
Safe harbor (prior year, higher income)110%Of your 2025 tax if 2025 AGI was over $150,000Tax year 2026
North Carolina estimatesNC-40Paid separately, same due dates as federalTax year 2026
08

Common mistakes

!

"I'll just pay it all when I file."

The penalty is figured installment by installment. Catching up in January doesn't erase the penalty on the payments you skipped earlier.

!

"I have W-2 withholding, so I'm covered."

Side income, rent or a big stock sale can easily outrun your paycheck withholding. Raising withholding on a new W-4 is a useful fix, because withholding is treated as paid evenly through the year.

!

"Paying 90% of this year's tax is always cheapest."

Only if you can estimate this year accurately. Guess low and you're penalized. With volatile income, the 100%/110% prior-year rule is safer, and if your income was back-loaded, the annualized income method (Form 2210, Schedule AI) can reduce the penalty.

!

"Federal is enough."

North Carolina tax is paid separately on NC-40. The IRS doesn't share your payments with the state.

09

Behind on payments, or paying for the first time? Here's what to do

First figure out which situation you're in. The sooner a shortfall is made up, the smaller the penalty.

  • Situation A: You realize mid-year that you should have been paying. Catch up the missed amount now and pay the full amount going forward. Or raise your W-4 withholding for the rest of the year. Because withholding counts as paid evenly, it can cover earlier gaps too.
  • Situation B: The year is over and you owe a penalty. Form 2210 figures the penalty. If your income came in unevenly, the annualized method usually lowers it. Waivers are available for casualties, disasters and other unusual circumstances.
  • Situation C: This is your first year (new freelancer, new landlord, a large stock sale). Estimate the year's income, choose a safe harbor, set four payment amounts and calendar reminders, and plan federal and North Carolina together.
Why YCL

We've calculated and paid estimated taxes for clients for years

Every year we work out estimated payments for freelancers, landlords and investors and make the payments on schedule. We explain why you owe, what the rules are and how much each installment should be, then we make the payment and keep the confirmation on file.

  • Big Four background, 15+ years in U.S. tax, credentialed as CPA, EA and CAA
  • Installments sized to the safe harbor, with federal and North Carolina NC-40 planned together
  • Reminders before each due date, and a mid-year recalculation if your income changes
  • The same team prepares your annual return and reconciles every payment

How it works

  1. 1

    Free assessment

    A 15-minute call to confirm whether you need to pay and which safe harbor fits.

  2. 2

    Payment plan

    Federal and NC amounts based on last year's return and this year's income.

  3. 3

    Payments and reminders

    We remind you before each deadline, pay once you approve, and send you the confirmation.

  4. 4

    Mid-year check and filing

    We recalculate if income changes, then reconcile all four payments on your return and use the annualized method where it helps.

10

FAQ

How much estimated tax do I need to pay to avoid a penalty?

Pay at least 90% of this year's tax or 100% of last year's (110% if last year's AGI was over $150,000) across the four installments. You can still owe a balance at filing without being penalized.

I just started freelancing and my total tax last year was zero. Do I need to pay this year?

If you were a U.S. citizen or resident for all of last year and your total tax was zero, you generally won't face an underpayment penalty this year. "No balance due at filing" is not the same as "zero tax," though. And the bill in April could be large, so we still recommend paying something each quarter.

I missed a payment. What now?

Pay as soon as you can. The penalty runs on the amount short and the number of days, so it stops growing once you catch up. Increasing W-4 withholding for the rest of the year is another option.

Does North Carolina require estimated payments too?

Yes. NC estimates are paid separately on Form NC-40 or online with the NC Department of Revenue, on the same dates as federal. Federal payments don't carry over to the state.

Can YCL help me with this?

Yes. We've handled estimated tax for clients for years, federal and North Carolina NC-40 together, with reminders before every deadline. Book a free 15-minute call and we'll work out your 2026 installments.

Sources

  • IRS: Form 1040-ES, Estimated Tax for Individuals (irs.gov)
  • IRS: Publication 505, Tax Withholding and Estimated Tax
  • IRS: Form 2210 and instructions, Underpayment of Estimated Tax by Individuals
  • IRS: Estimated Taxes (irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/estimated-taxes)
  • NC Department of Revenue: Form NC-40, Individual Estimated Income Tax

Not sure how much to pay this year?

Book a free 15-minute call. A CPA will work out your installments under the safe harbor rules, with no fee and no sales pitch.

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